Hey Brewer

Picking the winning bracket in your pool is a very difficult task. Fortunately there is a lot of history to analyze and pretty much every conceivable angle has been studied, broken down, analyzed, analyzed again, written about, discussed and so on and so forth. But even with all this data being readily available, people continue to fuck up their brackets.

Why? For starters everyone thinks they are a sports genius, they have the inside track on some team or some player, they know where all the upsets are going to happen or they want to impress their friends by picking some “sleepers.” The truth is, the teams earned their seeds for a reason. So no matter how frisky Cal State Fullerton looks, there is a reason they are the #14 seed and on the flip side, there is a reason Wisconsin is ranked #3. I am aware that the 14 seed has upset the 3 seed before, but historically speaking, the #3 seed wins 84% of the time. So there is an outside chance that your Fullerton pick will net you some points in the first round, but it’s a big risk and you have to keep in mind that winning your pool is not based on one game but rather the entire bracket…and mathematically speaking, you’re more likely to suit up for one of these teams than you are to correctly predict the outcome of every game.

That is a perfect jump off point for my “awesome winning list”

1. You will never accurately predict a perfect bracket - There is a reason that websites like www.sportsbook.com offer $11 million prizes to anyone who can predict a perfect bracket. A quick read over at Vegaswatch.net will give you a very in depth look at the mathematical possibility of correctly predicting 63 out of 63 games. If you’re too lazy to read their post, they basically state that assuming you make a few upset picks in the early rounds and assuming you are an extremely knowledgeable individual, the odds of you hitting all 63 games is 1 in 7,179,362,296,775.
   
   You're not going to win 11 million

   So like I said, you’re not going to get every game right. Keeping this in mind, look at your bracket as a “big picture.” Rather than tearing your hair out debating between Indiana and Arkansas, worry more about making smart decisions in the later rounds. There’s nothing worse than looking at your bracket come Elite Eight time and seeing that all your teams have been eliminated. So how do you see the “big picture,” well let’s start with your first round picks.

2. Rely on historical data - The 64 team (65 if you want to nitpick) format has been in place since 1985, so we have over 20 years of data to look at when making our picks. If there is one thing that the NCAA tournament proves it’s that history repeats itself. This is one of the places were the “genius” in your pool immediately puts himself in the hole. Something caught his guy in the last Memphis game and he is convinced that Texas-Arlington has the perfect defense to exploit it. Well, history tells us that it’s not going to happen.

   So in your first round, pick every #1 team. The #1 team has beaten the #16 team all 92 times they have played, in fact the #16 team has come within 5 points of winning only 5 times. The only real scare was in 1990 when Michigan State needed OT to defeat Murray State and there hasn’t been a close game here since 1996. So I repeat, pick the #1 seed to advance to Round 2.

   Let’s break down the other seeds quickly. Unless you have strong ties to the opponents of the #2, #3 or #4 team or inversely, you loathe a team seeded in that spot, then you should probably play it safe and advance all of them to the second round. If you’re going to pick an upset, then pick #13 seed over the #4. Historically they have been victorious in 18 of the 92 matchups.

   The 5-8 seeds are where you can make or break your bracket right away. The 7 versus 10 game has seen its share of upsets, but this year no one really stands out to me. If I had to pick an upset I would go with Saint Mary’s over Miami. I watched them play a few times this year and they definitely have the talent to win. A lot of people like Arizona, and normally I would too, but I watched West Virginia play these past weeks and they are not going to stop Joe Alexander. With Bob Huggins at the helm I just don’t see them losing.

   
   Keep your eye on this guy

   The 8 vs 9 games should be treated as an even matchup, in fact historically the 9 seed has come out victorious more often. These picks will be more luck based than anything else.

   Everyone knows the history of the #5 vs #12 seed. Off the top of my head, I believe there has only been one tournament where a 12 seed did not advance and I believe there have been at least 2 occurrences where 3 of the #12 seeds were victorious. Looking at the current bracket, the Clemson/Villanova matchup looks promising as does the ND/George Mason game. So to continue on your winning ways, you should pick at least one 12 seed to score an upset.

   Often overlooked in the 5 v 12 debate though is the #6 vs #11 matchup. Again going back to our history, the #12 seed has pulled off 29 victories in their 92 games against the #5 seed. Guess how many times the #11 seed has defeated the #6 team…if you guessed 29, you would be correct. Looking at the four matchups in this years bracket, you could definitely make a case for all of the 11 seeds. In the East, St. Joseph’s looked impressive with victories over Xavier in their last 2 meetings and they had a good run in the A-10. Their opponent, Oklahoma is coming off an embarrassing loss to their Longhorn rivals. Also, their top player has been injured and their team has been streaky all season long.

   The midwest features the best game of the first round in my opinion, USC v K-State. I have a lot of feelings about this game, mainly I feel like K-State was given a lower seeding than they deserved in order to exploit an OJ Mayo/Michael Beasley matchup for TV ratings. USC is a solid team, but they are young and prone to a lot of turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve had some poor showings in the tourney and watching them this year they seem overly concerned with how they will be compared to crosstown rival UCLA. They think too much when they are on the floor and at times play timid basketball. K-State on the other hand has nothing to lose. They have arguably the best player in college basketball and a vastly underrated and forgotten star in Bill Walker (who would love nothing more than to use this stage to remind NBA scouts of his talent). Based on their play this year, they can beat anyone (as Kansas found out) or get blown out (as Kansas found out). If you’re looking for an upset, this is a risky one, but the Wildcats will let you know within the first 5 minutes of the game if you made the right call.

   
   This guy is pretty good

   The South presents an interesting matchup between #6 Purdue and #11 Baylor. Baylor has been the “feel good” story of the year and definitely has the Cinderella title attached to them and will likely be a sexy upset pick by a few people in your pool. Looking at it closer though, they are only 4-6 in their past 10 games and are coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to Colorado. Purdue on the other hand has been playing out of their head. They finished 2nd in a strong Big Ten conference that features 4 Top 25 teams. They are 12-3 in their last 15 and are coming off an OT loss to Illinois in a game they should have won. Neither team is strong in the post, so the game will likely be decided by 3 point shooting. Purdue has 3 of the nations top 3 point shooters so I’d say this matchup is the least likely to provide an upset.

   In the South, Marquette drew a 6 seed and got matched up with Kentucky. I’m not going to delve too far into this matchup, all I’m going to say is that Kentucky is involved. They are a strong program and know how to perform in the tourney. Before I move into the later rounds, I want to veer off quickly to another major point related to this.

3. It’s okay to pick really good schools - This sounds stupid, but you’d be amazed at how often people overlook this simple fact. I posted this before, but here are the teams who have won the tourney in the past 10 years: Florida, UNC, UConn, Syracuse, Maryland, Duke, Michigan State and Kentucky. Not that shocking really, teams with strong programs, blue chip players, good recruiting and successful coaches tend to do well. So if you are debating on a pick, don’t be afraid to pick the team that you recognize as a college basketball powerhouse. A quick glance at the bracket reveals UConn at #4, Michigan State at #5, Kentucky at #11 and Florida in the NIT. Zing! Seriously though, it’s probably not a bad idea to ride one or all of those teams into the Sweet 16 and possibly even further. Let’s get back to the other rounds.
   
   Kentucky has a decent history

4. Save your upsets for the First Round - So you correctly predicted that Georgia would defeat Xavier and South Alabama would prevail against Butler? Well done, now don’t pick them to keep going. Lower seeded teams traditionally fizzle out in Round 2 so keep that in mind when making your next choices. That’s not to say you should only pick the favorites, but don’t get too carried away with your South Alabama pick, they’ll likely be facing Tennessee and will probably lose. If you must pick upsets then focus on teams seeded no lower than 8. The 14 seed has made it out of this round twice, ever, so even though it can happen it probably won’t. If it does happen, they wont’ be getting any further.
   
   Guess who won't be in the Sweet 16?

5. The Elite Eight is reserved for elite teams - Obvious right? There’s a reason this part of the tourney uses the adjective Elite. At this point your bracket should consist mainly of teams seeded 1-4 (I’ll even let some 5s slide in there). Teams that should not be there under any circumstances? Any team ranked lower than #12. Missouri is the lowest seed to ever make the Elite Eight, back in 2002, and they came in as #12 seed. If you have followed my guidelines, you should have a pretty solid bracket up to this point. The next picks will be very difficult, particularly in a year where there has not been one dominant team but rather a lot of very good teams.
6. The Final Four is not a place for #1 teams - Watching ESPN, reading CBS Sportsline, perusing Yahoo! sports, I was absolutely shocked at the number of “experts” picking UCLA, Memphis, UNC and Kansas to play in the Final Four. Yes they’re all great teams and any of those teams could win it all, but they’re all #1 seeds. Why does this matter? Well since 1985 all 4 of the #1 teams have made it to the Final Four as many times as the USC men’s basketball team has won a title, in other words NEVER.

   This means that somewhere along the line you should have at least one top seeded team losing. If you want to really play it safe then I would knock out at least 2 of those teams. Three #1 teams have made it to the Final Four only three times, most recently in 1999.

   An ideal Final Four bracket should contain two #1 seeds and the remaining seeds should be made up of teams in the #2-#4 slots. With this part of your bracket in place, all you need to do is choose the National Championship.

7. Let me repeat, really good schools always win - I have nothing against Memphis, but they have never won and are not recognized in the annals of time as a basketball powerhouse so I’m staying away from them the closer I get to the championship game. The other 3 top seeded teams are definitely safe picks. It wouldn’t be a surprise if UCLA, Kansas or UNC were to cut the nets in the championship game. Going down the list of teams ranked 2-4, some usual suspects stand out, namely Georgetown, Uconn and Duke.

   I’m not saying that Texas, Stanford or Tennessee can’t be the champions, but if my life depended on choosing the winning team I would definitely go with one of the 6 teams mentioned above. What sounds more likely, UCLA 2008 NCAA Champions or Tennessee 2008 NCAA Champion? Exactly.

These rules are meant as guidelines, I relied heavily on historical data to make up these rules and I do not guarantee any kind of success. I tried to lay out some things to consider when choosing your teams without actually making any specific predictions.

As awesome as these rules are there are 2 things that will override them all. One of them is your gut feeling and the other is blind allegiance, which is why my pick for the Championship Game is no other than OJ Mayo and his USC Trojans.